Remember the "China syndrome" scenario for the most serious sort of meltdown in a nuclear reactor. The core of the nuclear reactor melts into a molten ball and starts burning a hole through the earth as if on the way to China. Of course the molten slag doesn't get very far and the term "China syndrome" is but another bit of poetic terminology. Chernobyl was a meltdown of sorts and of course the ecological destruction has been enormous contaminating many thousands of square miles.
What about Pakistan? Of course the nation of Pakistan is not a nuclear reactor. It will not melt down into slag. Yet it does seem to be a nation on the brink of an islamic revolution could sweep away Musharaff and possibly anyone in its path. I am most unhappy about this possibility.
So it will be a meltdown for Musharaff and Bhutto and Sharif? The new Islamic revolution will be quite pleased with itself and potentially acquire substantial military assets including nuclear weapons. So it is difficult to imagine the United States and perhaps others standing by and letting this happen. Unfortunately the Bush-Cheney obsession with Iraq has distracted from very real problems with Pakistan, problems that affect the war in Afghanistan and which
threaten to rapidly explode into a remarkable catastrophe, a Pakistani version of Al Qaeda with nukes.
It would be another Islamic revolution in Pakistan. It would have a lot of assets and might be a lot more conservative than so-called Islamists without assets. What do you think?
I do not doubt the bravery of the Pakistani leaders. Bhutto has been most impressive, but it doesn't look like Musharaff will work with her as I had imagined was the hidden American plan. Instead, he seems to want to run the show on his own. This could narrow his base and erode his ability to remain in power. Of course at any point assassins could finally finish him off. I can see he would be concerned about Bhutto getting killed possibly as she organizes against him but he is also a repressive dictator if reports of how he has rounded folks up are to be believed.
We keep on hearing that there are reliable replacement Generals in the wings! Is this an expression of overconfidence? Of course I don't know what degree of legitimacy Bhutto has. It is remarkable that there are such courageous political movements like with the lawyers and the PPP. It seems to be a level of political consciousness and concern and activism unlike anything I have ever seen in the United States.
Would an Islamist revolution in Pakistan lead to military offensives in Kashmir and war with India? Is anyone in the White House thinking about these things? Isn't the obsession with Iran also a distraction from the Pakistani meltdown.
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